AbbVie stock was up after posting a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report, but with the company's patent expiring on Humira, the stock is a hold, February 24, 2023|americanbankingnews.com, February 23, 2023|americanbankingnews.com. In my last note on AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) for Seeking Alpha - in early July - I reviewed the Big Pharma's Q1'22 earnings and looked ahead to the release of Q2'22 figures. The firm earned $15.12 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $15.30 billion. AbbVie has been the subject of 9 research reports in the past 90 days, demonstrating strong analyst interest in this stock. All rights reserved. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. Our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Target Market Determination provides important information about our products and who our products are more likely to be suited to Capital.com does not provide financial or investment advice and you should seek independent advice if you are unsure of the risks or whether our products are suitable for you. The pharma industry witnessed solid growth amid the pandemic. AbbVie says it will pay down debt of $4bn in 2023, which will "bring cumulative debt pay down ~$34bn", but the company is heavily reliant on maintaining an investment grade rating. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. The company is focused on research and has a number of collaborations and partnerships to that end. View the latest news, buy/sell ratings, SEC filings and insider transactions for your stocks. It's hard to argue against Skyrizi and Rinvoq's performance to date, however, and with the total addressable market across all immunology indications likely well in excess of $100bn, I feel fairly comfortable that AbbVie can grow this division's revenues even as the world's biggest ever selling drug exits stage left. The company's average rating score is 2.44, and is based on 7 buy ratings, 9 hold ratings, and no sell ratings. On average, analysts forecast that ABBV's EPS will be $11.80 for 2023, with the lowest EPS . And we remain confident in our ability to achieve total sales of more than $9 billion by 2029. On average, they expect the company's stock price to reach $161.12 in the next twelve months. For the next year, analysts predict that Free Cash Flow will reach 6.91B - an increase of 1.94%. Payout ratios above 75% are not desirable because they may not be sustainable. Moreover, with surging demand, rising investments in research and development, and increasing e-pharmacy channels, the industry is well-positioned for significant growth New research suggests Depakote ingredient could have a new clinical function. With Skyrizi and Rinviq - two assets developed in-house - performing so well, however, perhaps we should give management the benefit of the doubt. AbbVie, like its parent Abbot Laboratories, is a well-established dividend growth stock. Our momentum combined with ramping contributions from new products and new indications will drive accelerating revenue and EPS growth through the rest of the year., ABBV has done very well to add to its impressive gains from the past couple of years. But AbbVie is also keen to explore solid tumors, and I am therefore adding an additional $1.5bn of revenues from that source by 2030. 1 dividend stock for a LIFETIME of income. Drug pricing is another issue - there is bipartisan, and international pressure on US Pharmas to reduce drug pricing, particularly outside of the US. A major reason behind Abbvies stellar performance amid the ongoing economic crises is the resolution of the companys Humira (adalimumab) litigation with Alvotech in March 2022. I have speculatively assigned peak sales of $2bn, although it should be noted that success here is far from guaranteed, although if AbbVie did succeed with ABBV916 sales could be 2 or 3x higher than my forecast. Sales of the drug reached $19.9bn in 2018 and were $19.2bn, $19.8bn and $20.6bn in 2019, 2020, and 2021 respectively. The review period was extended by three months in order for the FDA to review additional data submitted by AbbVie. The weighted average cost of capital I estimate to be 9.6% - I tend to use a WACC of 10% for most Big Pharma analysis. AbbVie could be the biggest global Pharma by revenue generation in 2028. Forecasts shouldnt be used as a substitute for your own research. See AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades. Migraine therapy Ubrelvy is a future blockbuster, Gonzalez believes, as is Qulipta, in the same indication. AbbVie has received a consensus rating of Hold. You should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. AbbVie stock is one of the most well-known pharmaceutical companies. The S&P 500 (US500) lost 9.1%, the Dow Jones (US30) slid 9.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 23% during the same period. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Thursday, April 13th. Investors do not seem to be taking the bait, however, as AbbVie's share price has slipped by >7% across the past month, and >5% across the past 5 days. AbbVie's free cash flow yield is 10.5% compared to 4.3% for Johnson & Johnson . Currently, AbbVie sees a significantly higher portion of every dollar end up as cash to do with what they please. Pharmaceuticals are often valued based on a philosophy of "jam tomorrow" as opposed to jam today i.e. call (03) 8658 0539 [email protected]. Let's begin our analysis with the immunology division. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Having dived into the numbers however and looked ahead to 2030 through the eyes and guidance of management, my conclusion is that investors can probably buy AbbVie stock at current price with reasonably high hopes of making a decent ROI - perhaps 15 - 20% in the next 12 - 18 months, whilst also benefiting from a generous dividend. Their combined revenues are expected to reach $7.5bn in 2022, and Gonzalez told the audience at JPM that: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on pace to deliver more than $17.5 billion in combined sales, risk adjusted sales in 2025, well above our previous expectations. The firm's revenue for the quarter was up 1.6% compared to the same quarter last year. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (844) 978-6257. The fact that my own forecasts are less ambitious than management's reflects the fact I have not introduced new products into my forecasts, and it will be interesting to see how management performs on that front as AbbVie has not really had to have a string pipeline while Humira has delivered such dominance in the auto-immune markets. The company can be reached via phone at (847) 932-7900 or via fax at 302-655-5049. View which stocks are hot on social media with MarketBeat's trending stocks report. I believe AbbVie is likely 15 - 20% undervalued at current price. The first is Epcoritamab, a CD3xCD20 bispecific for B-cell malignancies, including DLBCL and follicular lymphoma, which AbbVie expects will be approved this year. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. However, there are some general principles that can be followed in order to improve the accuracy of stock price predictions. PEG Ratios above 1 indicate that a company could be overvalued. MarketRank is calculated as an average of available category scores, with extra weight given to analysis and valuation. Trading CFDs is high risk and is not suitable for everyone. AbbVie declared a quarterly dividend on Thursday, February 16th. Is this happening to you frequently? The next two approvals - for Navitoclax in Myelofibrosis and Teliso V in non squamous non-small cell lung cancer ("NSCLC") - are anticipated by management in 2024. View ABBV analyst ratings or view top-rated stocks. First of all, as shown in the table above I forecast product sales out to 2030. All rights reserved. Remember that past performance is not a guarantee of future results and you should never invest more money than you can afford to lose. Export data to Excel for your own analysis. I look forward to seeing if Epcoritamab is approved this year, and although there is not a lot else in the near-term pipeline at this time, I also look forward to seeing how other projects may progress, e.g., opportunities in Parkinson's Disease, Alzheimer's and Cystic Fibrosis. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. As we can see, as per management's guidance revenues fall between 2022 and 2023, before recovering and growing in each year after. Partnerships are with universities, medical facilities, research organizations and other pharmaceutical companies. To summarize, although AbbVie does not have the same clout in oncology as it does in immunology - as evidenced perhaps by the declining sales of Imbruvica - it is clearly an area of focus for management. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). As of 2023 February 22, Wednesday current price of ABBV stock is 151.340$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in an uptrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception).. Abbvie stock price as been showing a rising tendency so we believe that similar market segments were very popular in the given time frame. According to AbbVie CEO Rick Gonzalez, speaking on the Q2'22 earnings call, "Skyrizi's total prescription share of the U.S. biological market (in psoriasis) has increased to approximately 26%", and". Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. Note that analysts ABBV stock forecasts can be wrong. AbbVie's Dividend and Valuation. Should I buy or sell AbbVie stock right now? Noting the stellar earnings reported by the firm in the first quarter, Richard A. Gonzalez, chairman and CEO of AbbVie, said: An overview of the companys net revenue in Q1 shows a major portion of revenue came from its immunology portfolio, which brought in $6.14bn. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $3.31 EPS. Please. If signs point to that happening I will likely be revising my target price upwards again, but I am playing it more conservative as nobody truly knows the scale of losses after the Humira LOE. Post-spin, AbbVie emerged as a research-based biopharma that has more than doubled in size. Always conduct your own due diligence before investing. According to the Abbvie stock technical analysis, as of 30 June, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pointing to neutral at 62.18. (NYSE: ABBV) Abbvie's current Earnings Per Share (EPS) is $6.65. AbbVie had a net margin of 20.39% and a trailing twelve-month return on equity of 154.52%. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The company may not generate as much excitement as some of the other members of the "Big 8" - most notably Eli Lilly and its weight loss franchise, but the path to revenue growth, expanding margins and a growing share price is clear. We now expect global sales for Skyrizi to reach more than $10 billion in 2025, an increase of $2.5 billion versus our previous guidance, reflecting higher performance across basically all of the indications. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. In my model I have then reduced revenues by 20% between 2024 - 2026, and then by 10% per annum between 2027 - 2030. This rating has held steady since February, when it was unchanged from a Buy rating.Move your mouse over pastmonths for detail. Get short term trading ideas from the MarketBeat Idea Engine. If youre new to trading, then youve probably heard the wrong thing about optionsthat theyre risky, unpredictable, or difficult. Read our dividend analysis for ABBV. As such, forecasting stock prices is more of an art than a science. To date, the company had invested more than $50 billion into research through more than 250 partnerships. Receive regular, detailed analysis focused on biotech and healthcare stocks. 164.71 0.00 0.00%. As of 30 June, analysts price predictions compiled by MarketBeats and long-term forecasts by Wallet Investor projected that the ABBV stock price could rise. Bhd., AbbVie Sp. AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) posted its earnings results on Thursday, February, 9th. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. There has been a raft of price-moving news for Abbvie, which may positively affect the stock price. This could present more profit potential for drugmakers as well as investors. (ABBV) AbbVie Stock Predictions from the Leading Provider of Short and Long Term Stock Price Forecasts. All Rights Reserved. Stock Price Forecast The 21 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Abbvie Inc have a median target of 165.00, with a high estimate of 200.00 and a low estimate of 135.00. AbbVie Inc. is a US-based biopharma company with global operations. The shining star in the aesthetics business is Botox, which increased sales by 45% year over year to $477 million in the first quarter of 2021. In the last four years, Johnson & Johnson's Free Cash Flow has fallen from $18.53B to $17.00B - a 8.28% decrease. If you rely on the information on this page then you do so entirely on your own risk. The company has a robust pipeline of new products that are in some stage of clinical trials. If you like what you have just read and want to receive at least 4 exclusive stock tips every week focused on Pharma, Biotech and Healthcare, then join me at my marketplace channel, Haggerston BioHealth. The 21 analysts offering 1 year price forecasts for ABBV have a max estimate of and a min estimate of . Over the next nine years, experts believe that GSK's Free Cash Flow will grow at a rate of 1.98%. The company has been increasing its dividend for 51 consecutive years, indicating the company has a strong committment to maintain and grow its dividend. The Large Pharma sector performed remarkably well in 2022, with the "Big 8" delivering an average ~15% gain whilst the S&P 500 index fell in value, and the biotech sector was in turmoil. View institutional ownership trends. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. The median estimate represents a +5.72% increase from the last price of 156.07. The surge in revenues can primarily be attributed to its Allergan. Invest alongside the model portfolio or simply access the investment bank-grade financial models and research. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. As per management's guidance, I am modelling for $5.7bn of revenues in 2023, with growth beginning to accelerate substantially from 2025 / 26 onwards. Skyrizi - which inhibits the activities of IL-23 - a naturally occurring cytokine that is involved in inflammatory and immune responses - and Rinvoq - a member of the janus kinase inhibitor drug class - fit this profile. AbbVie's Q2'22 earnings threw up some positives and negatives for investors to contemplate. Find me at my marketplace channel, Haggerston BioHealth - model portfolio + 4 exclusive stock tips every week. The companys full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance excluded any impact from acquired IPR&D and milestones that may be incurred beyond the first quarter of the year, as both cannot be reliably forecasted. The companys operations span 20 countries, treating more than 60 million people and 40 conditions annually. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. By creating a free account, you agree to our, In Britain, warm hubs emerge to beat soaring energy costs, In Chicago, adapting electric buses to winters challenges, Global race to boost electric vehicle range in cold weather, Ukraine ally Kallas fights for reelection in Estonia vote, Paid express lanes grow more popular in once-reluctant South, Pot vote has Oklahoma hungry to rake in green from Texas, Home Depot Stock Earnings Slide, Long Term Value Still There, AbbVie Stock Still a Solid Buy Despite Challenges, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, BREAKING: Tiny biotech successfully treats blindness, Fed's Shocking New Plan to Control Your Money. Currently, the company has a "stable" rating, but that must be maintained or investors will perceive the company as unsafe to invest in and that will drag the share price down rapidly. Disclaimer. The company projects the U.S. toxin market (where Botox is the top product) will decline by mid-single digits. Among the many avenues of research and innovation are the advancement of precision medicine or pMedicine. AbbVie will have to drop its price point to compete with the generics however, plus there is the 10% of the market it is not covered for, so an overall 20% decline in revenues in 2023 seems accurate. Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com, commenting to Capital.com, said: As of 30 June, analyst ratings compiled by MarketBeat shared different price targets for Abbvie stock. Allergan plc was an Ireland-based pharmaceutical company focused on health-oriented aesthetic products and is the owner of Botox. The average ABBVIE INC stock forecast 2023 represents a 1.86% increase from the last price of $153.729995727539. The drug is now approved in severe Rheumatoid Arthritis, active Psoriatic Arthritis, moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis, Ulcerative Colitis, active Ankylosing Spondylitis, with Crohn's Disease the next approval on the list. Join the 500.000+ traders worldwide that chose to trade with Capital.com, Also you can contact us: Earnings for AbbVie are expected to decrease by -0.55% in the coming year, from $11.00 to $10.94 per share. Management believes these 2 drugs could one day generate $15bn in peak sales, going a long way to solving the Humira loss of exclusivity ("LOE") problem. In most cases, trials are underway for multiple indications, including some therapies that have already been approved for 1 or more conditions. See what's happening in the market right now with MarketBeat's real-time news feed. Receive regular, detailed analysis focused on biotech and healthcare stocks. As such I have modelled similar, although I have included an additional revenue stream from new products which I expect to be minor in nature but ultimately contributing an additional $1.5bn to the top line. AbbVie product revenue forecasts to 2030. Based on earnings estimates, ABBV will have a dividend payout ratio of 54.11% next year. AbbVie's mailing address is 1 NORTH WAUKEGAN ROAD, NORTH CHICAGO IL, 60064. Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Below, I will outline how I see AbbVie putting the Humira LOE firmly behind it, and driving the high single digit percentage annual growth management has promised. ABBV currently yields 4.1% and has raised its dividend every year since 2013. In this article we take a closer look at the Abbvie stock forecast, after analysing the firms latest earnings, price moving news and analyst comments. There are still very few approved therapies, although that could change with Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) / Vertex (VRTX) Sickle Cell Disease therapy leading the charge in 2023. Today, AbbVie operates as a diversified multi-national pharmaceutical company with a patient-centric approach to research. I hope to see you there. It revealed that patients with moderate to severe Crohns disease receiving Abbvies Rinvoq achieved steroid-free clinical remission in significantly higher numbers than patients receiving a placebo. The median. It is important to do your own research, and remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. Sign in to your free account to enjoy all that MarketBeat has to offer. (ABBV), MarketBeat Week in Review 2/13 - 2/17 (ABBV), The 3 Best Pharma Stocks to Buy for Big Gains in 2023 (ABBV), How Abbott Labs, AbbVie Could Profit on Seizure Drug Formula (ABBV), AbbVie Has a Mixed Outlook After Mixed Earnings, Q4 2022 AdTheorent Holding Company Inc Earnings Call. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. 16 analysts have issued 12-month price targets for AbbVie's shares. I also considered the long-term outlook for a company that is still only 10 years old and is about to feel the impact of a loss of patent protection for its mega-blockbuster auto-immune drug Humira, which made $20.7bn of sales for the company in FY21, representing 37% of total revenues generated. Under the terms of the resolution, AbbVie will grant Alvotech a non-exclusive licence to its Humira-related patents in the US, which will begin on 1 July 2023. The company officially IPOd on January 2, 2013; contrary to criticisms, the move was solely to protect the parent company from expiring patents. That is a significant difference because at a forward P/E of 10x AbbVie stock looks like a solid buy opportunity, but at a P/E of 20x, when we consider the risk/challenge of Humira's LOE, prospective investors may prefer to maintain a watching brief as opposed to opening a position. AbbVie's success - as its shareholders will doubtless be aware - stems from the runaway success of its immunology drug Humira, which is indicated for a range of autoimmune conditions, including Rheumatoid Arthritis, Psoriatic Arthritis, Psoriasis, Crohn's Disease, Ulcerative Colitis, Hidradenitis Suppurativa and Ankylosing spondylitis. Duodopa is approved for Parkinson's Disease but Gonzalez believes that the subcutaneous non-surgical delivery system of candidate ABBV951 can "significantly expand the patient population currently addressed by Duopa", and sees the drug as yet another future blockbuster. The dividend payout ratio of AbbVie is 89.56%. Skyrizi has also been approved to treat Crohn's Disease, an added bonus and another multi-billion dollar market. To see all exchange delays and terms of use please see Barchart's disclaimer. The company had recorded a $4.7 billion increase in the contingent consideration liability related to Skyrizi last year. The major market events for the week ahead right in your inbox. In this post, I will discuss Q2'22 results, as well as the long-term outlook for AbbVie based on the latest information, goals, risks, and financial modeling analysis, to try to establish a target price for AbbVie stock. About the AbbVie, Inc. stock forecast. One of the few pain points AbbVie experienced during a year of portfolio wide growth in 2022 was the decline in the revenue contribution from Imbruvica, approved to treat various types of lymphoma. In summary, the total revenue increase of just 4% year-on-year in Q2'22 might disappoint a few investors, as might the downgraded guidance, although it is hard to argue that AbbVie is a bad investment when we consider that the Pharma also pays a dividend of $1.41 per quarter, yielding 4% per annum, drove operating earnings of $3.925bn on a GAAP basis, and trades at a >10% discount to my calculated target price. CFDs are complex leveraged instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. According to 34 stock analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for AbbVie stock is $166.14, which predicts an increase of 7.62%. Since then, however, the stock price has fallen 18% to. My No. The company earns $11.84 billion in net income (profit) each year or $6.61 on an earnings per share basis. AbbVie Aesthetics / Neurology revenues forecasts to 2030 (my table and assumptions) . The company also successfully completed the acquisition of Syndesi Therapeutics SA in March. And it couldnt be more wrong! Only you can design whether Abbvie stock is the right investment for you. The division delivered >$1.65bn in sales in Q2'22, up >15% year-on-year, and with Vraylar, Ubrelvy and possibly Qulipta all earmarked for blockbuster sales - $4bn in the case of Vraylar - my forecasting suggests this division could double in size by 2030, from ~$6.6bn revenues generated in FY22, to >$13.5bn by 2030. AbbVie Aesthetics / Neurology revenues forecasts to 2030 (my table and assumptions). Get 30 Days of MarketBeat All Access Free, Sign in to your free account to enjoy these benefits. Forecast . One share of ABBV stock can currently be purchased for approximately $156.06. According to analysts' consensus price target of $161.12, AbbVie has a forecasted upside of 3.2% from its current price of $156.06. For ABBVIE INC stock forecast for 2023, 10 predictions are offered for each month of 2023 with average ABBVIE INC stock forecast of $156.58, a high forecast of $160.07, and a low forecast of $152.24. AbbVie has said it expects to generate high-single-digit CAGR growth from 2025 to the end of the decade after revenues fall in 2023 due to Humira LOE. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2019 and/or its affiliates. Among the more notable are ImmuVen, Pharamcyclics and Allergan plc. Eye Care, Other products Division Projected Revenues to 2030 (my table and assumptions ). Slide from JPM Conference 2022 presentation. What intrigues here is the possibility of RGX-314, an anti-VEGF gene therapy that Gonzalez believes "has the potential to be a one-time treatment for wet AMD, diabetic retinopathy and other chronic retinal conditions". Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2019. There is no mention of Women's Health in the Q2'22 earnings call or in the 10-Q submission to the SEC, or any of the drugs within it, yet the divisions have not (to the best of my knowledge) been sold, despite rumors it was put up for sale at ~$5bn. Bringing RGX314 would be a coup for AbbVie although I am forecasting for only $2bn in peak revenues in 2030 as a hedge against the risk that this candidate does not make it to market on safety grounds. AbbVie has fought off patent challenges against Humira for years longer than expected, and despite losing exclusivity in Europe in 2020, a series of price hikes and market dominance in the US in indications such as Rheumatoid Arthritis ("RA"), Psoriatic Arthritis ("PsA"), Crohn's Disease ("CD"), and Ulcerative Colitis ("UC") - have enabled the drug's sales revenues to keep growing. Abbvie Stock Forecast 2023 In the Biopharmaceutical Industry, Abbvie has been able to create a leadership position in the market in each business segment with different brand names in different business categories like Immunology, Hematologic Oncology, Neuroscience, Aesthetics, and Eye Care. RHHBY vs. ABBV: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option? Abbvie stock price has put up an impressive performance in 2022. Kateryna Onyshchuk/iStock via Getty Images. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). It . That is interesting to me as I think it suggests management will need to commercialize more assets if it wants to hit that target. outlook for a company that is still only 10 years old and is about to feel the impact of a loss of patent protection for its mega-blockbuster auto-immune drug Humira, which made $20.7bn of sales for the company in FY21, representing 37% of total revenues generated. The dividend payout ratio is 89.56%. As we can see the immunology division consists of only 3 assets yet by my calculation, will likely account for 50% of AbbVie's revenues in 2022 (to calculate 2022 sales revenues by product, since we do not yet have final figures, I have used 9m 2022 figures and assumed Q4 revenues will be the average of the previous 3 quarters).